Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Is the US Planning a Military Base in Kenya?

Two events that could shape Kenya’s position on global military supremacy took place yesterday. One was President Bush okaying a plan to establish a military command post in Africa (Africom). The other event took place in Nairobi, where the Chinese graced Kenya with military hardware worth more than $800,000. The Chinese have not indicated interest in establishing military command posts in the region, but nothing will stop their American counterparts.

It is not yet clear where the American command post will be based, but it is somewhere close to the Horn. The US military is already present in Djibouti, where it intends to contain “threats from Yemen and Somalia extremists.” But Kenya is also a prime target, given the US desire to take control of the East African coastline, from Djibouti City to Dar es salaam.

Kenya may be tricked with promises of better security and other goodies. But despite suffering terribly from terrorists, we must not believe that our neighbors are on a mission to harm us. Peace with our neighbors and other nations should be cultivated with dialogue, not with bombers or massive propaganda.


Staff Writer said...

Hello Kenyanomics,
What do you think of the steady decline of the US dollar, and the coming collapse? Surely American spending is unsustainable. Just last year they were responsible for almost 60% of all global credit, they are overdrawn by close to 10 trillion dollars already.

In a few years, even their most ardent creditors will start selling off dollar assets. Iran and Russia are already divesting of their dollar assets. The oil-dollar marriage will soon end, and then waht for that obese nation?

Will China press the red button?

coldtusker said...

Kenya Imagine: Collapse of the US economy is unlikely in the near future (our lifetime)...

BUT there will be setbacks esp with potential oil shocks...

Sale of US$ & US$ holdings by the Chinese & Japanese will cause US interest rates to rise which will can increase inflation & a drop in property prices.

But there are too many moving parts in this equation. Cheap Chinese goods has lowered inflation in the USA.

China will face an aging & decreasing population by 2050. The USA retains knowhow but the fast pace of change might render today's patents worthless in 20 years!

Kenyanomics said...

Economists have predicted fall of the dollar ever since FDR courted Keynes' teachings, but that has not happened 70 years down the road. The dollar may not collapse, but Americans could easily be caught in a mess of their own making, i.e excessive money printing.

Currently, 60% of dollars printed by the US Mint are used outside the country. That percentage is rising rapidly. I fear that further collapse of the dollar could lead to foreigners dumping the green back back home, leading to a major American inflation.

However, Americans hold the most creative and adaptive economy, it can "easily" sail through dollar crisis.

I don't think China can pull plug on the US. Chinese authorities, who are actually seating on hundreds of millions of time bombs, have enough headache on on their plate. Think of the politically and economically marginalized masses.

Staff Writer said...

Agreed. A collapse is not good for anyone. China's relationship with America, indeed every nation's relationship with America is such that it is in the collective interest to prop her up. Take away 150 million affluent consumers for the world market and everyone takes a beating.

However, it is unforeseeable that central banks will be able to hold on much longer, or keep buying US debt, sooner or later they will feel over-exposed and start selling.

Lakni T how will a rise ininterest rates cause inflation to rise?

Finally, I am not sure the Chinese care too much about this political repression, very few people do if they can be left alone to make their money in peace, as the Chinese are doing more and more. Don't forget that the US is also pretty repressive politically, but you don't get to hear about it because so few are repressed. But ageing will be a factor, and India's youth will shoot it to the top.


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